Old Man, Old Tricks

It’s on! Australians will go to the polls on November 24th. At stake – John Howard’s legacy; voters’ integrity and the country’s future.

As Howard fronted the Press Gallery in Canberra this morning – my old journalistic stomping ground – I watched his performance with interest on my screen. The rhetoric was more negative than expected…clearly he’s planning a campaign of opposition against Labor's Kevin Rudd – a dangerous and curious strategy for an incumbent.

Predictably, Australia's most conservative Prime Minister in a century, hammered the fact that 70% of Labor’s candidates are trade union affiliates – that’s supposed to scare us. But here’s a scarier statistic for him – the latest newspaper poll published in today’s Sun Herald show’s more than 70% of voters aged 18-25 intend to vote for Labor at the next election. They represent those who’ve paid the highest price in terms of loss of pay and conditions under Howard’s ‘Workchoices’ industrial revolution.

But more interesting than what he said, was his body language and general demeanour. From my notes as I watched: “eyes shifting in sockets from side to side” (a classic Howard indicator for unease and dishonesty); “licking lips” (nerves, indecision); “sounds bored…tired…flat”; “clears throat nervously”; “unenthusiastic…hesitant”. This was a man who looked and sounded old and out of ideas…lacking verve and inspiration…backed into a corner.

So, what did he actually say? Not a lot really – predictably. That said, you don’t expect candidates to outline their policies in any detail on day one…that’s the stuff of careful media management…slow-drip release of ideas.

But the main theme was “love me or loathe me”, I’m you’re man. He’s clearly rattled by the latest opinion polls which show his government is still trailing Labor by 18% on day one of the campaign, but he’s banking on his experience in the job and the longevity of key cabinet ministers, to win over the electorate for the fifth time. Spruiking on behalf of his Liberal-National ministers is key because he’s announced he’ll be leaving office before the next election if he gets over the line again, handing the reigns to the unpopular Federal Treasurer, Peter Costello.

Other themes included the infuriatingly misleading old message “you can trust us to keep interest rates lower”. What he fails to tell us of course is that when he was Treasurer in the early 80's, interest rates reached a whopping 21% - far higher than they’ve ever gone under Labor. Who can you trust? Other highlights (or lowlights?)from his address this morning included the goals of full employment (pipedream!), increasing national prosperity, good old fashioned family values. Same old same old.

There were the subtle dog-whistle messages too – “We’ll govern for all Australians, not narrow sections of the community” (i.e. on behalf of the masses, not the marginalised, down-trodden, poor, the social activists, the fair-minded). He also said: “I’m a believer in one Australia..we share a common loyalty and common citizenship”. Hmmm…I can see the campaign ads now: “Howard for One Australia”. Interesting…the doyen of Australian racist politics, Pauline Hanson (again running for the Senate this election) was of course the founder of the “One Nation” Party. Same-same?

Rudd’s about to front the podium – stay tuned for my assessment of his performance. Meantime, strap in for the long ride to polling day. I’ll try to help you pass the time.