Game On!

It’s one to nil to Kevin Rudd in the opening hours of the Australian Federal election campaign.

Flanked by a banner plastered with the campaign phrase ‘New Leadership’, the Labor Opposition leader certainly looked like the fresh alternative to John Howard, presenting big picture ideas and forcefully attempting to outline the differences between himself and the Prime Minister.

His address to the Brisbane media this afternoon was composed and confident, appearing scripted in parts, but suited to the needs of campaign reporters…brevity, clarity, thumping key messages. He appeared to lose confidence – adjusting glasses, licking lips momentarily and shrinking slightly at the podium – when the journos began firing questions. But his composure grew as the press conference continued and the end result was impressive. He certainly looks like the young, inspired but safe alternative voters say they’re looking for. Particularly in contrast to Howard’s ‘yesterday’s man’ performance earlier today.

But was there real substance? In my assessment, yes. While there was scant specific detail – as expected given the nature of political campaign management – the themes were rich and clearly discernable. The old promise of an ‘Education Revolution’ was joined by commitments to withdraw Australia’s combat troops from Iraq, sign the (now outdated) Kyoto Agreement on greenhouse gas emissions, deliver high speed broadband to regional and remote Australia as well as the big cities (long overdue), prohibit nuclear reactors, repeal ‘Workchoices’, end the blame game between the states and the Commonwealth on hospital funding (easier said than done). That’s the stuff of potential campaign meat.

But it’s a long road ahead and, as Rudd acknowledged, Labor is going to have to make history to win this election – the party has only crossed the line twice from Opposition since World War 2. “This is going to be the fight of our lives…we have 16 seats to win and we’re up against a really clever politician…I believe this will go down to the wire,” he told reporters. He’s right - despite being consistently ahead in the polls, it’s going to take more than fresh ideas and ‘youthful’ appeal to pull off the win on polling day. History is likely to judge John Howard as the most cunning politician ever to live in the Lodge and he will be a tough act to beat, especially from the back-foot – he is the dogged “Lazarus with a triple by-pass” after all.

That’s why Rudd will need to engage with the negative campaign launched by Howard today. And, he’s off to a good start on that front, saying he’s prepared for the "mother of all fear campaigns" and putting defensive tactics in play. He’s hit back over the false claim that the Coalition Government is the one to trust on interest rates, pointing to the five interest-rate rises on Howard’s watch since the last election. And he’s answered Howard’s criticism of him as inexperienced, highlighting his career achievements in the public service, the diplomatic corps and his decade of service as a Labor MP. He's also re-iterated his claim to be economically conservative and fiscally responsible. But he'll have to point to his achievements in the shadow Foreign Affairs portfolio and his fluency in Mandarin, among other strengths, if he’s going to convince those prone to hesitating in the voting booths, that he can be trusted for the top job. But he’s off to a good start with this strategy: pre-empt the attacks, confront them head-on and return fire. That’s the only way to win the battle.

Meantime, this is the anti-Howard message you can expect Kevin Rudd to ram home “…he (Howard) has no plan for our future. Australia can’t afford another three years of a government gone stale without fresh ideas…I refuse to stand idly by and watch this happen” That and "Who's afraid of Peter Costello?"